The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Philadelphia Eagles in the wildcard round for the second time in three seasons Monday evening. Circumstances have changed a great deal since Tampa Bay made short work of Philadelphia in the 2021 playoffs, though.
Some vestiges from the Bucs team that won the Super Bowl are still in place, but Tom Brady has since retired, replaced by Baker Mayfield under center. As for the Eagles, Jalen Hurts emerged as an MVP-caliber quarterback last year en route to a Super Bowl run. However, the hangover from the Big Game showed up late in the season as Philadelphia stumbles into Tampa having lost five of its final six games.
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Wins over Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills in November improved the Eagles’ record to 10–1. The NFC East was well within reach and a first-round bye even seemed likely at that point until a late-season collapse dropped Philadelphia to the No. 5 seed to set up another first-round matchup with the Buccaneers.
The Eagles are 2.5-point road favorites in Tampa at Raymond James Stadium, where they beat the Bucs 25–11 in Week 3. They easily covered the 5.5-point spread in that meeting. The over/under for Monday’s matchup is set at 43.5, according to SI Sportsbook. The total was set at 44 in that September game and the under hit with room to spare.
Moneyline: Eagles (-161) | Buccaneers (+135)
Spread: PHI -2.5 (-125) | TB +2.5 (+100)
Total: 43.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Monday, Jan. 15, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN, ABC
Philadelphia and Tampa Bay Key Stats and Fun Facts:The Buccaneers (11–6) tied for the second-best record against the spread. The Eagles finished with a losing record (7–8–2) after failing to cover their final six games.Tampa Bay posted an impressive 8–3 record against the spread as an underdog, though they were just 1–2 at home in that position.Philadelphia finished 5–4 straight up on the road and lost its last three games by 40 combined points.Eagles vs. Buccaneers Best Bet: Under 43.5 (-110)
Hurts is dealing with a finger injury that he suffered in last week’s loss to the Giants. He was held out of the second half of the 27–10 loss to New York with Philadelphia already trailing 24–0 and his dislocated finger prevented him from throwing in practice this week. Receiver A.J. Brown (knee) was also banged up in last week’s loss, another blow to an already struggling offense.
The Eagles were held under 20 points four times over their last six games but perhaps even more concerning than those offensive woes was their play on the defense. Philadelphia relied on its defense, specifically its dominant pass rush, during its Super Bowl run a season ago. Since the departure of defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon and several starters from that unit, the Eagles fell to 30th in points (25.2) and passing yards (252.7) allowed per game.
The Giants hung 25 and 27 points on Philly in a span of three weeks, the Commanders scored 31 in both games and the 49ers shellacked this defense for 42 points at Lincoln Financial Field. Clearly, this unit is in dire straits and Hurts has not been able to do the heavy lifting to compensate as of late.
Hurts set new career-highs in passing (23) and rushing (15) touchdowns this season but his efficiency suffered. His yards per attempt and yards per carry are both down while his interceptions (15) are up dramatically. Hurts supported 1,000-yard receiving seasons for Brown and DeVonta Smith once again and D’Andre Swift enjoyed the finest year of his career in his first season in Philly, but this offense started showing signs of cracks way before Hurts was injured.
Tampa Bay is one of 10 teams that allows fewer than 20 points per game and Todd Bowles’ defense just pitched a shutout against the Panthers in Week 18 to clinch the NFC South. Like the Eagles, the Buccaneers are also a bottom-five unit against the pass, though their run defense is firmly in the top five and allows just 3.8 yards per carry.
Mayfield’s play down the stretch powered Tampa Bay to a 5–1 run in December and January to secure a winning record. He set new career-highs in passing yards (4,044) and touchdowns (28) and established a dynamic connection with Mike Evans early on. The veteran receiver tied for first in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (13) and had his most yards (1,255) since 2018. Evans also accounted for the team’s only touchdown earlier in the year against Philadelphia.
Chris Godwin recorded his third consecutive 1,000-yard season, although his two receiving scores were his fewest since his rookie year. Mayfield’s No. 3 target was Rachaad White out of the backfield, who finished fourth among running backs with 64 receptions. White was not a very efficient runner — he fell just shy of 1,000 yards despite fielding the second-most carries in the league — and the Bucs finished 32nd in rushing yards per game (88.8).
Monday’s forecast projects thunderstorms in Tampa, which might force both teams to the ground game. Tampa Bay seemingly has the front to at least slow down Philadelphia’s rushing attack and the Eagles are much better equipped to defend White near the line of scrimmage rather than the 6’5” Evans downfield. Aside from the weather conditions, the under is 6–2 for the Buccaneers at home and 7–2 for Philly on the road.
These offenses combined to score 19 points in Week 18 against two of the worst teams in the league, not to mention Hurts is injured and wasn’t necessarily lighting it up before then. This game is more likely to devolve into a dogfight than a shootout.
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