Happy Friday NBA fans!
I’m looking to close out the week strong in this week’s NBA best bets after a slow start to the season, and there are plenty of interesting matchups on the board, including a Cleveland Cavaliers-Orlando Magic battle, a Denver Nuggets-Minnesota Timberwolves rematch and much more.
I’m eyeing four plays for the first slate of November, including a moneyline parlay (first one of the season) and a pair of player props.
Let’s dive into the picks for tonight’s action!
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 16-21-1 (-3.56 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1026-966-23 (+34.53 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
New York Knicks-Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline Parlay (-136)Cleveland Cavaliers -8 (-112) vs. Orlando Magic – 0.5 unitMichael Porter Jr. OVER 19.5 Points and Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unitCade Cuningham OVER 36.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unitNew York Knicks-Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline Parlay (-137)
New York Knicks
Fresh off of a road win in Miami, the New York Knicks head to Detroit to take on the one-win Detroit Pistons in what should be their easiest matchup of the 2024-25 season to date.
New York opened up with a gauntlet against Boston, Indiana, Cleveland and Miami (four playoff teams from last season), and it ended up going 2-2.
While the Knicks’ loss at home to the Cavs was disappointing, it comes out of Miami in great shape after Karl-Anthony Towns dropped 44 points in their win. The Knicks are listing Towns as questionable for this game with a wrist injury, but assuming he plays, New York should be in a great spot to win.
Detroit has been frisky early on in the 2024-25 campaign, covering the spread in three of its five games, but I like the Knicks as a moneyline parlay piece in this one.
Last season, New York dominated against under .500 teams, going 29-4 straight up, and the Knicks have a lot more talent in their starting group than Detroit.
Coming into this game, the Pistons still rank 27th in the NBA in net rating despite covering the spread 60 percent of the time. I’ll gladly back New York at a shorter number than I expected on the road.
Los Angeles Lakers
After a dreadful showing and loss to the Cavs on Wednesday, the Los Angeles Lakers are in a prime bounce-back spot against a banged up Toronto team on Friday night.
The Raptors won't have Scottie Barnes, Kelly Olynyk or Bruce Brown in this matchup and guard Immanuel Quickley is listed as doubtful, severely limiting their ceiling offensively.
Meanwhile, the Lakers are off to a great start in the 2024-25 season, ranking 11th in the league in net rating and covering the spread in four of their five games. Anthony Davis has been on a tear to open the season, and while Jakob Poeltl isn’t the easiest matchup for the All-Star big man, Toronto has really struggled defending the paint – ranking 24th in the NBA in points in the paint allowed.
Los Angeles should win this game easily on Friday.
Cleveland Cavaliers -8 (-112) vs. Orlando Magic – 0.5 unit
The Cavaliers are in a prime spot to move to 6-0 on the season when they host the Magic – a first-round playoff rematch – on Friday night.
On Thursday, Orlando announced that All-Star forward Paolo Banchero has a torn oblique and will miss significant time, putting the young Magic in a tough spot on Friday – and going forward.
Plus, Franz Wagner (illness) is questionable for this game.
Orlando’s offense runs through Banchero, and there isn’t really anyone on the roster – Wagner included – who can step in and pick up his slack.
While Orlando is one of the better defensive teams in the league, Cleveland is third in net rating and second in offensive rating so far in the 2024-25 campaign. The Cavs are also a perfect 5-0 against the spread.
There is a little worry that Cleveland is due for a clunker, but I don’t expect it to come at home in what has suddenly become an extremely winnable game. Orlando is just 4-8 all time when Banchero doesn’t suit up.
Michael Porter Jr. OVER 19.5 Points and Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit
Looking at the Nuggets-Timberwolves matchup, Michael Porter Jr. could be in line for a big game after finding his 3-point shot in the Nuggets’ overtime win against the Brooklyn Nets earlier this week.
After starting the season 4-for-20 from beyond the arc, MPJ hit 4-of-7 shots from deep, finishing the game with 16 points and five rebounds. He’s now cleared 19.5 points and rebounds in three of his four games, putting up 23, 18, 22 and 21 through four games.
While I don’t expect MPJ to dominate on the glass all season, he is averaging 14.8 rebound chances per game so far. Not only that, but he should see his scoring continue to rise as his 3-point shot falls. The Nuggets forward could clear this total solely on points, and I expect this to be a closely contested game after these teams went the distance in their playoff series last season.
Cade Cuningham OVER 36.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
Last season, Pistons guard Cade Cunningham gave the New York Knicks trouble, averaging 31.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game in two matchups against them.
A bigger guard, Cunningham is a tough cover for nearly any defense, and he enters this matchup averaging 25.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game while shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 40.0 percent from 3.
Through five games, Cunningham has finished with 41, 44, 37, 38 and 34 points, rebounds and assists. He hasn’t been fully dependent on scoring the ball, putting up at least 10 rebounds and assists in every single game.
The Knicks have gotten off to a bit of a slow start defensively – 29th in defensive rating – and they allowed a massive scoring game to Heat guard Tyler Herro on Wednesday.
This matchup has lined up well for Cunningham in the past, and it’s worth noting that the only game he didn’t clear this prop was in a win over Philly when he took just 15 shots. In every other game this season, Cunningham has attempted at least 18 shots, clearing 20 shot attempts three times.
